lol. the Russian millatary does work remotely like the US military. The US military leadership have zero clue how to win wars and unlike Russia, our military brass retire and work for mic weapons manufacturers that design extremely expensive complicated systems that don't perform well in modern combat and quickly become antiquated. Russian weapons manufacturers work with the government and the military and rely on actual combat reports to design simple effective weapons systems at a fraction of the cost of our military budget.
take a look how they upgraded and retrofitted bombs from the 60's to glide bombs guided by gps. those have been game changers along with hypersonic missile systems the US has been unable to develop
Phil, If[when] this invasion ends do you believe that Russia will occupy:
A. more land mass than pre Ukraine invasion
B. less land mass than pre Ukraine invasion
A.
When the invasion first began, I figured that the Dnieper would be the new border, with the eastern half annexed to Russia and a Russian-satellite state controlling the western half of Ukraine. That was based on my analysis of the initial Russian assault and how it compared with the Russian reconquest of the Ukraine in 1943. I thought Russia would be able to "boom, headshot" Ukraine. Russia's logistical, operational, and tactical incompetence put an end to that. The idea that the Russians would be road bound frankly never crossed my mind. I figured they would be able to swoop down in overwhelming force along the MSRs, but not be limited to the MSRs. And that they would achieve their objectives before the spring thaw set in, at which point no one would really be able to respond while they entrenched. And by the time the West got around to doing something, it would be a fait accompli. Needless to say, that didn't happen. Russian tanks stranded on the roads out of gas, troops unable to maneuver off the roads. It was like the Russians in Afghanistan all over again (I highly recommend reading The Bear Went Over the Mountain by Lester Grau). The fact that Russia failed so spectacularly tells me that his government and senior leaders within his military are probably full of the same moronic and spineless yes men that our government and military coddle so well. I know from personal experience that it is dangerous to speak truth to power in the U.S. military. My observations of the Russian military suggest that it is likely much the same over there (just different politics).
At this point, it is a stalemate as long as the West keeps supporting Ukraine. There's no way Ukraine takes back all the lost areas. There's no way - short of the West pulling the rug out from under Ukraine as we did in Afghanistan or Vietnam - that Russia takes much more of the country. Best case scenario for Ukraine is an outcome like the Korean War, with a demarcation line that effectively becomes the new Iron Curtain.
That assessment is based on a career in the military, not based on "what I think the United States should or should not do" in this situation.
